Earthquake occurrence : short- and long-term models and their validation

Earthquake occurrence : short- and long-term models and their validation /

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Console, Rodolfo, 1944- (Author), Murru, Maura (Author), Falcone, Giuseppe (Author)
Corporate Author: ProQuest (Firm)
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:English
Published: London, UK : Hoboken, NJ : ISTE, Ltd. ; Wiley, 2017.
Series:Statistical methods for earthquakes set ; volume 1.
Subjects:
Earthquakes > Statistical methods.
Earthquake prediction.
Seismology.
Online Access:Connect to this title online (unlimited simultaneous users allowed; 325 uses per year)
Table of Contents:
  • Machine generated contents note: ch. 1 Seismicity and Earthquake Catalogues Described as Point Processes
  • 1.1. Gutenberg--Richter law
  • 1.2. time-independent Poisson model
  • 1.3. Occurrence rate density as a space--time continuous variable
  • 1.4. Time-independent spatial distribution
  • 1.5. Clustered seismicity
  • 1.6. Epidemic models
  • ch. 2 Likelihood of a Hypothesis
  • 2.1. Bayes theorem
  • 2.2. Likelihood function
  • 2.3. Alternative formulations
  • 2.4. Likelihood ratio
  • ch. 3 Likelihood for a Model of Continuous Rate Density Distribution
  • 3.1. limit case of regions of infinitesimal dimensions
  • 3.2. case of discrete regions
  • 3.3. case of time independence
  • 3.4. likelihood of an epidemic model in a 4-D space of parameters
  • ch. 4 Forecast Verification Procedures
  • 4.1. Scoring procedures
  • 4.2. binary diagrams
  • 4.2.1. ROC diagrams
  • 4.2.2. Molchan's error diagram
  • 4.2.3. Probability gain
  • 4.2.4. R-score
  • 4.3. Statistical tests implemented within CSEP
  • 4.3.1. Number test or N-test
  • 4.3.2. Data-consistency test or L-test
  • 4.3.3. S(pace)-test or S-test
  • 4.3.4. M(agnitude)-test or M-test
  • ch. 5 Applications of Epidemic Models
  • 5.1. Declustering a catalogue through an epidemic model
  • 5.2. Earthquake forecasting
  • 5.3. Seismic hazard maps for short-term forecast
  • ch. 6 Long-term Earthquake Occurrence Models
  • 6.1. empirical Gutenberg--Richter law and the time-independent model under the Poisson hypothesis
  • 6.2. Statistics of inter-event times
  • 6.3. truncated magnitude distribution
  • 6.4. Earthquake rate assessment under a renewal time-dependent model
  • 6.4.1. Exponential distribution (under the time-dependent hypothesis)
  • 6.4.2. Log-normal distribution
  • 6.4.3. Gamma distribution
  • 6.4.4. Weibull distribution
  • 6.4.5. Double-exponential distribution
  • 6.4.6. BPT distribution
  • 6.5. Validation and comparison of renewal time-dependent models
  • 6.5.1. likelihood ratio
  • 6.5.2. Long-term earthquake records
  • 6.5.3. Application of a Monte Carlo procedure
  • 6.5.4. Concluding remarks
  • 6.6. Cornell method for time-independent seismic hazard assessment
  • 6.7. Acknowledgments
  • ch. 7 Computer Programs and Examples of their Use
  • 7.1. PDE2REC, ZMAP2REC
  • 7.2. REC2PDE
  • 7.3. SMOOTH
  • 7.4. LIKELAQP
  • 7.5. LIKSTAQP
  • 7.6. BPT.

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