Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard--many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
©2010.
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| Series: | Columbia Business School publishing.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Connect to this title online (unlimited users allowed) |
| Summary: | Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard--many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal--our computers and our minds--Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility |
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| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (xv, 267 pages) : illustrations. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: | 9780231521673 0231521677 1282796615 9781282796614 9786612796616 6612796618 |